On 1 January 2026 the Dutch betting and gaming tax (kansspelbelasting) reached 37.8% of gross gaming revenue, the second step of a two-stage increase that began a year earlier. It is now among the highest gambling tax rates in Europe. The policy was sold as a way to raise more money for the state. So far, the figures point the other way: tax receipts have fallen, the regulated market has shrunk, and for the first time since online gambling was legalised in 2021, the illegal market in the Netherlands is larger than the licensed one.

That combination is why the rate increase has become one of the most contested questions in Dutch gambling policy. A formal evaluation of the tax, promised by the government, is due to reach parliament this quarter. What it concludes could shape the market for years.

The situation at a glance

What actually changed on 1 January 2026

The increase did not arrive out of nowhere. It was set out in the 2025 Tax Plan and built into the coalition's budget framework, with the rise deliberately split into two steps to give operators time to adjust: from 30.5% to 34.2% in 2025, and from 34.2% to 37.8% in 2026. The stated reason was straightforward — the government wanted more revenue from a sector it regards as a reliable source of income.

The base is gross gaming revenue: stakes minus prizes paid out. On top of the headline rate, licensed remote operators also pay a 1.95% gambling levy that supports addiction prevention. For a detailed breakdown of how the levy works and who pays it, see our explainer on the gambling tax in Holland.

A 7.3 percentage-point jump in two years is significant for a business model already operating on thin margins after marketing, payment costs and compliance. That is the core of the dispute now playing out.

The numbers behind the backlash

The case against the increase is not ideological — it is arithmetical. When the rise was approved, the Ministry of Finance expected it to add roughly €200m a year to the treasury over 2025–2028. Industry data suggests the opposite is happening.

According to figures from VNLOK, the trade body representing KSA-licensed online operators, gambling tax paid on online play in 2025 came in about €43.5m below the 2024 figure. The body estimates total sector tax contributions fell by around 13%, from roughly €322m to €288m. The Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has reached a similar conclusion in its own analysis: a higher rate can, under the current conditions, reduce overall tax income rather than increase it.

The mechanism is simple enough. If the higher tax pushes some revenue out of the licensed market and into the unlicensed one — where the Dutch state collects nothing — the headline rate matters less than the size of the base it is applied to. A larger slice of a shrinking pie can still be a smaller number.

Channelisation: two ways to read the same market

Channelisation — the share of gambling that takes place with licensed operators — is the metric that matters most here, and it can be measured in more than one way. That nuance is easy to lose in headlines.

Measured by money, the picture is stark. The KSA estimates that channelisation based on GGR fell to around 49% in the first half of 2025, down from roughly 51% at the end of 2024. On that basis, the illegal market generated an estimated €617m in the first half of 2025, slightly ahead of the €600m recorded by licensed operators. It was the first time the unlicensed market had overtaken the regulated one since the market opened in October 2021.

Measured by player accounts, the figure looks far healthier — the KSA has put player-based channelisation at around 94% to 95%, because most registered gamblers still hold an account with a licensed operator. The two figures are not contradictory. They describe a market where most players remain inside the system, but a relatively small group of higher-spending players is moving more of its money outside it. Both numbers are estimates, drawn from different methods (search-volume data, market research and operator reporting), and should be read as directional rather than exact.

Why some players are leaving the licensed market

Tax is not the only pressure. In October 2024 the KSA introduced mandatory monthly deposit limits: €700 for players aged 25 and over, and €300 for those aged 18 to 24. These were a meaningful player-protection step, and the data shows they worked on their own terms. The average monthly loss per account fell from about €146 in late 2024 to roughly €119 in the first half of 2025, and the share of accounts losing more than €1,000 a month dropped sharply.

The trade-off is that the same limits gave high-value players a reason to look elsewhere. Unlicensed sites do not enforce Dutch deposit caps, do not apply duty-of-care checks, and are not connected to Cruks, the central register through which people can exclude themselves from licensed gambling. For a player determined to bet beyond the legal limits, the illegal market removes the friction. The protections that make the regulated market safer are, paradoxically, part of what pushes the heaviest spenders away from it.

This is the regulator's central dilemma, and it is not unique to the Netherlands. Tightening the rules inside the licensed market improves outcomes for the players who stay, while increasing the incentive for a minority to leave — where there are no protections at all. Younger adults are a particular concern: the 18–24 group is consistently over-represented in active accounts relative to its share of the population.

What it means for licensed operators

For operators, 2026 stacks a higher tax bill on top of rising compliance costs and an already-shrinking revenue base. Several land-based and online businesses have warned of closures and withdrawals from the Dutch market, and the structural pressure is real rather than rhetorical.

The timing is awkward. The first remote gambling licences, issued when the market opened on 1 October 2021, were granted for five years and begin to expire on 30 September 2026. Every operator that wants to continue must renew under the KSA's updated Remote Gambling Policy Rules 2026, which took effect on 1 January. The new framework raises the bar: stricter documentation, tougher reliability and financial-continuity checks, and — notably — a mandatory exit plan describing how an operator would wind down and leave the market if its licence ends. Licence fees have also risen, with the cost of a new remote licence increasing to €61,300 from April 2026.

The regulator itself has been restructured. From 1 January 2026 the KSA operates under a new governance model built around three directorates covering player protection, permits and supervision, and digital analysis. Its 2026 agenda names five priorities: combating illegal gambling, protecting vulnerable groups, supervising the duty of care, enforcing advertising rules, and ensuring compliance with anti-money-laundering obligations. The KSA has also signalled it will pursue the wider ecosystem behind illegal sites — payment providers, hosting companies, social platforms and B2B suppliers — through an initiative it calls Project Disconnect, alongside a 34% year-on-year rise in reports of illegal offers in 2025. For background on how the regulator is set up, see our overview of the Netherlands Gambling Authority.

For and against the increase

The political picture

The debate is unfolding against a government that has taken a markedly tougher line on gambling. The coalition agreement of the D66, CDA and VVD parties commits to a complete ban on online gambling advertising, a stronger duty of care for operators, a harder push against illegal sites, and an explicit promise to explore limiting the number of online licences.

On tax specifically, VNLOK, fellow trade body VAN Kansspelen, the Nederlandse Loterij and Holland Casino jointly asked lawmakers to deliver a formal evaluation of the tax changes to parliament no later than Q2 2026, and to weigh the results before any further decisions. The State Secretary for Taxation has pledged that review. A parliamentary committee discussed gambling taxation on 11 March 2026, but as of late May no decision to reverse or pause the 37.8% rate had been taken. Much now depends on what the evaluation finds and how parliament responds. For wider context on where Dutch rules are heading, see our coverage of the Dutch Remote Gambling Act (Wok/Koa) and the latest Dutch gambling market statistics.

Why this matters

This is more than a line in a budget. The 37.8% rate is a live test of a question every regulated gambling market faces: how far can a government tighten taxes and rules before players vote with their wallets and move to operators it cannot control? If the Dutch experience shows that pushing the rate too high shrinks both the market and the tax take, it becomes a reference point well beyond the Netherlands. For Dutch players, the practical effect is a smaller licensed market and a larger, riskier unlicensed one sitting just one search away.

What to watch next

• The tax evaluation. The government's promised review is due this quarter. Whether it recommends holding, pausing or reversing the rate is the single most important development to track.
• The September licence cliff. The first five-year licences expire on 30 September 2026. How many operators renew — and how many quietly exit — will show the real health of the regulated market.
• The advertising ban. A full online advertising ban would further reduce the visibility of legal operators, which the KSA has credited with supporting channelisation. The interaction between an ad ban and the tax rate is the policy tension to watch.
• Enforcement against the illegal market. Project Disconnect and the move against payment and hosting providers are the regulator's main lever for clawing back lost channelisation. Results will take time to show.

Frequently asked questions

GamblingHolland.nl is an independent information platform covering the regulated Dutch gambling market. We only discuss operators licensed by the Kansspelautoriteit and do not promote illegal gambling. The figures in this article are drawn from public KSA reporting and industry sources and are best understood as estimates; channelisation in particular is measured in different ways and should be read as indicative. This article is editorial analysis, not legal, financial or tax advice. Gambling involves risk. Players must be 18 or older. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, you can register for self-exclusion through Cruks or seek support through recognised help services.