In 2025 and 2026 the Dutch government sharply increased gambling tax rates, hoping to raise hundreds of millions in extra revenue. Based on the June 2026 “Monitor effecten verhoging kansspelbelasting”, the actual impact on the market – and on the state budget – looks very different from what was originally planned.

The Tax Hike: From 30.5% to 37.8%

Per 1 January 2025 the gambling tax (Kansspelbelasting, KSB) went up from 30.5% to 34.2%, followed by a second step to 37.8% from 1 January 2026. The idea behind this staged increase was simple: improve public finances by collecting significantly more tax from both land‑based and online gambling.

Monitor-effecten-verhoging-Kansspelbelasting-juni-2026.pdf

In the original budget calculations, the government expected around €108 million extra KSB revenue in 2025 and €216 million extra per year from 2026 onwards (all in 2026 price level).

The Reality: Extra Revenue Falls Short

The monitor shows that these targets have not been achieved. After correcting for inflation and seasonal patterns, total gambling tax revenue was about €1,034 million in 2024, €1,036 million in 2025 and is projected at €1,091 million for 2026. That means only €2 million more revenue in 2025 and an expected €57 million more in 2026 compared to 2024 – far below the original goals.

To understand why, the report uses a calculation model that separates three elements: changes in the tax rate, changes in the tax base (mainly gross gaming revenue, or BSR), and other external factors such as new responsible gambling rules and the Euro 2024 football championship.

New Responsible Gambling Rules Hit the Tax Base

One of the most important external factors is a package of stricter player‑protection rules introduced in October 2024. These include monthly net deposit limits of €300 for young adults and €700 for players aged 24 and over, with higher limits only allowed after an individual affordability check.

According to the monitor, these measures have achieved their main goal: extreme losses are falling and online gross gaming revenue dropped sharply after the rules came into force. Because KSB is calculated over BSR or over prize payouts above a threshold (for lotteries), a lower tax base automatically limits how much extra revenue a higher rate can generate.

Land‑Based vs Online: Different Trends

For land‑based gambling (arcades and Holland Casino), the combined BSR has been drifting down for years, from roughly €941 million in 2019 to €694 million in 2023 and €654 million in 2024 (price level 2024). The first quarter of 2026 shows a further dip compared to late 2025, in line with this longer downward trend.

Online, the picture is different. BSR for licensed online operators fell strongly right after the new player‑protection rules in late 2024, then stabilised and even ticked up slightly in early 2026. The monitor finds no clear evidence that the higher tax rate itself caused a major drop in online BSR; the regulatory changes around deposits seem to be the main driver.

Fewer Visits and Fewer Arcades

Using data from the national self‑exclusion register (CRUKS), the report also tracks physical visits and online log‑ins. Between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, visits to arcades and Holland Casino fell from 4.6 million to 4.1 million – an 11% decline.

The number of arcade locations has been falling since early 2024, with a particularly sharp drop between late 2024 and early 2025. Large chains like JVH Gaming and Fair Play Casino publicly cited the higher gambling tax as one of the reasons for closing venues. Meanwhile, the number of licensed online operators has slightly increased over the last two years, and there is no visible effect of the tax hike on this count.

What Really Happened to Tax Revenue?

To strip out the effects of Euro 2024 and the new responsible gambling rules, the authors simulate a scenario where these external shocks did not occur. In that scenario, gambling tax revenue in 2024 would have been about €81 million lower than it actually was, mainly because the responsible gambling rules are assumed to have been in force throughout the year.

Relative to this adjusted 2024 baseline, the model estimates that the isolated impact of the higher tax rate would be around €83 million extra in 2025 and €138 million extra in 2026 (both in 2026 prices). However, even this “pure” effect is uncertain, because not all influencing factors can be cleanly separated from the tax increase.

State‑Owned Operators Pay Less in Other Ways

The state does not only earn money from gambling via KSB. It also receives corporate tax and dividends from its two gambling companies, Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij, plus licence‑based contributions from the latter. Higher KSB increases their costs, which in turn reduces profits, corporate tax and dividend flows back to the state.

For 2025 the report estimates that Holland Casino’s profit before corporate tax was about €27 million lower due to the higher KSB, resulting in roughly €7 million less corporate tax and another €20 million less profit that could otherwise have been paid out as dividend. For 2026, the projected impact roughly doubles: €54 million less profit before tax, €14 million less corporate tax and €40 million less potential dividend.

For Nederlandse Loterij, the combined impact on licence contributions, corporate tax and profit is estimated at around €16 million lower in 2025 and €34 million lower in 2026, again driven by the higher gambling tax. Recent annual contributions and profit distributions from Nederlandse Loterij to the state have typically been in the range of €120–125 million, so these changes are material.

Good Causes and Sport: Mostly Stable So Far

The monitor also looks at statutory and voluntary contributions to good causes and sport. In 2025 contributions to good causes reached about €608 million, up 1.8% compared to 2024 after adjusting for inflation. Contributions to sport (NOC*NSF) dipped slightly from €56 million in 2024 to €54 million in 2025.

Over a longer horizon, total contributions to good causes fell from €724 million in 2019 to €569 million in 2022, largely because the mandatory payout percentage for major charity lotteries was reduced from 50% to 40% in 2020. Since 2022 there has been a modest upward trend again, and the first tax hike does not appear to have broken it.

Illegal Market and Channelisation

One concern with higher taxes is that players may migrate from licensed to illegal operators if legal games become less attractive or more restricted. The monitor uses data from GfK and Google Ads to estimate “channelisation” – the share of online play that goes through licensed sites.

Depending on how you treat players who use both legal and illegal sites, the estimated channelisation rate in terms of players is around 91% or 95%. In both cases there is a slight downward trend, but this decline started before the first tax hike and cannot be clearly linked to the higher rate. The same applies when channelisation is measured in terms of BSR: the share of legal turnover has been falling for some time, but the data do not allow firm conclusions about the effect of KSB changes.

Key Takeaways for the Dutch Gambling Market

Overall, the June 2026 monitor concludes that the intended goal of the gambling tax increase – significantly higher tax revenue – has not been achieved. Additional revenue is much smaller than forecast, while parts of the legal market (especially land‑based arcades) are shrinking and state‑owned operators are paying less corporate tax and dividend.

Because several major policy changes happened at roughly the same time – stricter responsible‑gaming rules, advertising bans, and tax hikes – it is impossible to fully isolate the impact of the higher KSB. What is clear, however, is that the tax base has fallen and that this has offset much of the intended budget gain. For players and affiliates, the Dutch market is moving towards a more regulated, lower‑margin environment where volume and product mix, rather than tax‑driven growth, will shape future opportunities.